1.MMA market prices are showing a continuous upward trend

Since November 2023, the domestic MMA market prices have shown a continuous upward trend. From the low point of 10450 yuan/ton in October to the current 13000 yuan/ton, the increase is as high as 24.41%. This increase not only exceeded the expectations of downstream manufacturers, but also did not meet the expectations of upstream manufacturers. The main reason for the continuous increase in prices is the tight supply of goods, which is closely related to the subsequent supply and demand relationship.

2.Multiple MMA devices have been shut down for maintenance, leading to tight supply and an increase in MMA

The MMA market experienced a supply-demand imbalance in October, leading to a broad decline in prices. Entering November, multiple MMA devices were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a significant decrease in domestic supply. With the restart of some early maintenance equipment in December, there are still plant shutdowns in Zhejiang, Northeast China, Jiangsu and other places, and there is still a shortage of spot supply. Entering 2024, although some devices have restarted, other shutdown maintenance devices remain in a shutdown state, further exacerbating the supply shortage.

At the same time, downstream demand is relatively stable, which allows suppliers to continue to raise prices. Although downstream users have decreased their ability to accept continuously rising raw material prices, they have to follow up with high prices under rigid demand. The imbalance between supply and demand is the main reason supporting the rise in MMA prices.

3.This week, there has been a slight rebound in construction, which has had a certain suppressive effect on market prices

Last week, the operating load of the MMA industry was 47.9%, a decrease of 2.4% compared to last week. This is mainly due to the shutdown and maintenance of multiple devices. Although the expected operating load of the MMA industry will increase this week as the load of restarting devices stabilizes, this may have a certain suppressive effect on market prices. However, in the short term, due to tight supply, the increase in operating load may not have a significant impact on market prices.

4.Future MMA may continue to remain high

With the continuous increase in MMA prices, the profits of the MMA industry are gradually recovering. At present, the average gross profit of the ACH MMA industry has reached 1900 yuan/ton. Despite the expected decline in raw material acetone prices, the MMA industry still has abundant profits. It is expected that the MMA market will continue to maintain a high operating trend in the future, but the increase may slow down.

The continuous increase in MMA prices is mainly caused by tight supply, which is closely related to the supply decline caused by the shutdown and maintenance of multiple devices. In the short term, due to the lack of significant relief in supply tension, it is expected that market prices will continue to operate at high levels. However, with the increase of operating load and the stability of downstream demand, the future market supply and demand relationship will gradually tend towards balance. Therefore, for investors and manufacturers, it is crucial to closely monitor market dynamics, understand changes in supply and demand relationships, and the impact of news on the market.